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Ivan Volkov
Ivan Volkov

Apple Falls Into Bear Market Territory



AAPL stock has officially entered a bear market as its stock has fallen more than 20% from its high on October 3. A stock, or a market as a whole, is considered to be in bear territory when its price has fallen 20% or more from its highest price in the past 12 months.




Apple falls into bear market territory


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So AAPL may well be in bear market territory right now, and that could get worse as the market as a whole slips and investors seek less volatile options than tech. But, argues Seeking Alpha, this could be a good time to buy for anyone focused on long-term returns.


While a bear market is when stock prices drop by 20% or more, a bull market is when stock prices rise by 20% or more. During bull markets, investors tend to be optimistic and reward even modestly good news with higher stock prices, fueling an upward spiral.


The Nasdaq fell more than 3%. It has now entered what's known as a bear market, or down more than 20% from its record high in November. The Nasdaq had been flirting with a bear market in recent weeks.


Looking back on 2022, it will be tempting for investors to focus solely on the agonizing downturn inflicted on the major U.S. stock market indexes. The bear market has mauled each one, but the worst performer -- by a country mile -- is the Nasdaq Composite. The tech-centric index began its descent more than a year ago and is still down by nearly 35% from its late 2021 high.


While the rout has sent many running for the exits, seasoned investors know this is part of the cost of admission, and game-changing wealth can still be made over time. Why, you ask? Because each and every bear market in history has given way to a bull market, which historically runs much farther for much longer. Furthermore, these occasional market nosedives let investors buy businesses with proven track records at unbelievably low prices.


One such bear-market bargain hiding in plain sight is Alphabet (GOOGL 4.61%) (GOOG 4.42%). Like many technology companies, the current headwinds have pounded the stock. However, those with the foresight to step back and take a broader view will discover a stock they should be buying like there's no tomorrow.


The bear's keen sense of smell leads it to insects, nuts and berries, but the animal is also enticed by the tantalizing smells of human food and garbage such as hot dogs, apple cores, chips, and watermelon rinds left on the ground in picnic areas, campgrounds, and along trails. Feeding bears or allowing them access to human food and garbage causes a number of problems:


In the backcountry, food storage cables have been installed to make it easier for backpackers to hang their food and garbage so that bears cannot get to it. At some campsites, telephone poles were flown into remote backcountry areas because the trees around the campsites were too small to set up an effective cable system!


Other Threats to BearsNon-Native Species: The European wild hog is one of the most direct threats to the black bear. These pervasive intruders feed on the acorns and other foods that are mainstays of bear diets. Another non-native species, the gypsy moth, is expanding its range toward the park. This insect defoliates oak trees, weakening them and leaving them susceptible to other insects and diseases which may kill the trees. Not only could bear's food source of acorns be affected, but some of the prime denning spots in old growth trees may be lost.Poaching: Unfortunately, the lure of high profits on international markets encourages the poaching of black bears. Several cultures believe that bear gall bladders, paws, and claws have medicinal powers or consider them gourmet delicacies.Urban Encroachment: Community and private developments near park boundaries are causing a loss in habitat for the bears. Poaching activities can be somewhat curtailed, and bear populations can eventually rebound from the losses. But once the critical habitats are destroyed, major declines in bear populations are inevitable. In addition, bears that venture outside park boundaries into neighboring communities may encounter human food and become unpredictable, dangerous, and a threat to human safety.


The Dow Jones bear market decline of 20% was reached on September 26th, 2022. The S&P entered bear territory on June 13th, 2022. The NASDAQ is also in bear territory after plunging nearly 30% in 2022.


The trouble with trying to model the economy or financial markets, Marks said, is they are incredibly complex, with literally millions of moving pieces which are both interdependent and can change in importance depending on the mood of the day. Physics says an apple falling from a tree drops down, not up or sideways (ask Sir Isaac Newton). 1+1=2, every time. If the economy and markets moved based strictly on data, they might be easier to understand and predict. Unfortunately, while NASA can land a spacecraft on a moving object a billion miles away, nobody can model or consistently and accurately predict the economy or markets.


Have you moved into a house that has an old, overgrown apple tree? Are the branches overlapping and going every which way? Don't lose hope. This tree is probably fine, it just needs a little work to get it back in shape and productive again.


As you prune your young tree to achieve a good form, you may also need to train it. Training primarily consists of bending young, flexible branches that are growing vertically into more horizontal positions, toward a 60 degree angle from the main stem. Some apple varieties produce strongly vertical growth and need more training; others tend to produce branches that are naturally well-angled.


Global stocks officially entered bear market territory (down 20+%) in June after U.S. inflation numbers showed an 8.6% yearly increase in consumer prices, surprising many who believed inflation had already peaked.


We see many comparisons to the 2000-2002 and 2008-2009 bear markets. These can be useful, but perspective is important. Those were two of the worst bear markets of the last hundred years, with stock prices cut roughly in half.


Between the 2000 and 2007 bear markets, the dotcom bust is the more relevant comparison as it also featured a large and perhaps irrational run-up of growth stocks. However, in that case, valuations had reached much more extreme levels, especially in the largest technology companies. There should be less room to fall this time around.


Inflation can be more damaging than bear markets. The CPI report in June was disheartening because many expected to see that inflation had already peaked. We take inflation risk very seriously but urge people to not panic. Looking beyond 2022, we concur with the Fed outlook that price increases should moderate. There are several factors supporting this:


One measure, the slope of the 12-month moving average on the S&P 500, was a solid predictor of the last two bear markets, dipping into negative territory in late 2000 and early 2008. It's been in negative territory since September.


As the end of 2022 rapidly approaches, it's increasingly unlikely that the technology-heavy Nasdaq-100 index will pull itself out of bear market territory. It's nursing a 32% decline for the year, which would mark its worst annual performance since the global financial crisis in 2008.


There have been some early signs that the driving forces of the decline, like high inflation, are beginning to resolve. But it could be several months before they feed into the broader stock market, so what should investors do in the meantime?


The agro-climatic diversity of the union territory of Jammu andKashmir favors diversification towards horticultural crops. Thecapacities of the territory are being increasingly shifted towardsthe production of horticultural crops as driven by market demandsand in turn profitability. The reason for this switchover may beattributed to the less remunerative production of field crops likerice and maize. Horticulture crops occupy an area of 3.31 lakhhectares (2018-19) in J&K, of which a whopping1.64 lakh hectaresis under apple cultivation [2]. 20 and 24 lakh metric tons annuallyof fresh and dry fruits, respectively of which apple alone constitutes80 per cent. Horticultural sector is the largest employment providerin the region engaging over 23 lakh people, depending directly orindirectly on this sector [3]. Kashmir has rightly been described asthe land of fruits, producing 24.15 lakh mt of fruits from 332 lakhha of land. Its land, environment and salubrious climate providesgreater facilities for rapid growth of horticulture industry. Thefruit production is highly capital and labour intensive activity,thus become the most dominant factor for changing the social andeconomic status of rural Kashmir.The vibrant fruit sector of Kashmir holds key to the economicgrowth as well as sustenance by containing the widespreadunemployment in the union territory. The fruit sector has strongbackward and forward linkages which involve such activitiesthat have significant multiplier effects. From the input market tothe final destination of produce, this sector has a long supply/value chain. The market functionaries and various marketinglogistics/infrastructures including cold storages, market yards,loading, weighing facilities involved in long supply/value chainconstitute the basics of an efficient supply chain management. Anypermanent or temporary changes that disrupt its supply/valuechain to any extent have long lasting multiple negative implicationson the performance of the fruit economy. In accordance with thisthe political disturbances, climate change, price fluctuations,availability of labour or inputs, etc. may have undesirable effects onthe desired performance of the horticultural sector. Undoubtedlythe ongoing covid-19 pandemic and associated lockdown areexpected to have some implications on horticultural economynecessitating assessment in terms of their magnitude which formsan objective of this study.


The poor execution of various economic activities relatingto the value chain of apple and vegetables leads to an increase inthe cost of cultivation. Farmers could not attend their fields in acrucial fruit development stage that resulted in pest/weed/diseaseinfestation and an additional amount of Rs 450.0 were spent on thisinput. More demand in relationship with the supplies resulted inmore wage rate of available labour. Agriculture land is being shiftedto horticultural crops especially apple at alarming rate and nearly2.5 lakh hectare apple area is in non-bearing stage. Farmers raiseintercrops for home consumption thus increase their real incomebut owing to strict restriction there have been dis-economiesworth of Rs 24000.00 per hectare as no intercropping has beendone within non-bearing orchards. During the second phase ofCovid-19 lockdown, the transporting fare escalated from Rs 15,000per truck to around Rs 35,000 and even then, only few trucks wereavailable for transporting the apple to the other mandis. Thoughthe restriction on mandis was relaxed to open the outlets but theout of CA store apple produce could not see the buyers and theproduce spoiled in a bad way. Similarly an additional amount wasspent by growers in different items to resolve the added problemsdue to lockdown (Table 3).


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